This week, President Donald Trump launched a reckless and costly war of choice on Iran without a compelling justification, a coherent strategy, or congressional authorization. In just the first few days of the war, six American service members have been killed, hundreds of Iranian civilians have been killed, and American and other civilians throughout the Middle East have been subjected to retaliatory missile and drone fire. The war has also come at an estimated initial cost of more than $5 billion. President Trump and his advisors have acknowledged more American casualties are likely and refuse to rule out boots on the ground. Without any clearly articulated goals, there is no telling how long the war will last.
In the latest from CAP, published the day before the war began, we explain why an air campaign alone will not achieve the Trump administration’s stated objectives, from eliminating Iran’s nuclear program to dismantling its ballistic missiles or regional proxy network. Our analysis also details why it will be difficult to achieve regime change in Iran. Even if successful, a transition to democracy that meets the just demands of the Iranian people is unlikely to ensue.
The collapse of the Islamic Republic may be more likely to produce a security vacuum or a more hard-line regime determined to pursue nuclear weapons at all costs. And, if the war’s potential gains are questionable, the risks President Trump is taking are more definitive. In addition to casualties, Iranian retaliation could disrupt global energy markets, raising gasoline and electricity prices for Americans already struggling to pay their bills.
Both the House of Representatives and the Senate will vote on joint resolutions of disapproval under the War Powers Act this week. While these resolutions are unlikely to pass, it will be crucial to send a message that Congress will not abdicate its constitutionally mandated role in decisions on war and peace. Members of Congress represent the people, ensuring their voices are heard on the most consequential matters.
As it is the American people who will pay the price, both financial and human, for President Trump’s debacle of a war, more than government procedure is at stake—a core part of our democracy hangs in the balance.
All my best,
Andrew P. Miller Senior Fellow, National Security and International Policy Center for American Progress
Trump’s reckless war in Iran has already cost Americans more than $5 billion
Earlier this week, CAP national security experts hosted an online briefing to assess the implications of the Trump administration’s intervention for Iran’s nuclear program, regime stability, and broader U.S. interests.
5 things to know about the DOD’s conflict with Anthropic
Photo: Getty Images
On Friday, February 27, the conflict between the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) and the frontier AI lab Anthropic over the company's insistence on restrictions against domestic mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons culminated when Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced on X that he had directed the DOD "to designate Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk to National Security." That announcement followed a Truth Social post from President Trump earlier in the day directing the U.S. government to "IMMEDIATELY CEASE all use of Anthropic's technology." Anthropic's statement in response held firm to its previous requirements and promised to challenge the designation in court.
Later that night, rival frontier AI lab OpenAI announced that it had signed a contract with DOD to deploy its AI models on their classified networks—networks where Anthropic's models were reportedly the only frontier AI models available.
Over the weekend, interviews, analysis, tweets, and leakedstories rapidly emerged. Here are five things to understand about the DOD and Anthropic conflict:
DOD designating Anthropic "a supply chain risk" was an unprecedented and likely illegal move.
The DOD is making clear that it wants to hurt or destroy Anthropic.
OpenAI’s decision to sign a contract with the DOD is rightly being subject to tremendous scrutiny.
Congress needs to hold hearings on the Trump Administration's actions with Anthropic and OpenAI.
Congress needs to pass legislation providing protections for citizens against mass surveillance.
The Trump administration's plan to "take over" elections before the 2026 midterms
Photo: Getty Images
Presidents have no power to make or alter the rules for federal elections—however, the Trump administration is reportedly considering a plan to issue an executive order that would allow the president to exert sweeping control over elections and rewrite every state’s voting laws by declaring a national emergency based on alleged election interference.
President Trump denied that he is considering such a plan, but since the beginning of his second term, the Trump administration has been on a quest to nationalize elections. In fact, Trump publicly declared that he wants to “take over” elections in multiple states.
President Trump’s reported executive order is another escalation in this administration's aggressive assault on the American people's right to free and fair elections.At President Trump’s urging, Congress is intent on passing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act—a “show your papers” bill that will require Americans to show a passport or birth certificate to vote.
The American people cannot stand for this type of authoritarian power grab. These anti-democratic attempts to spread disinformation about the security of American elections, deny citizens their right to vote, and sabotage election results are a desperate attempt by the Trump administration to lock in its political power.
